In 2019, I was asked on Quora, “What are some jobs that will disappear in the next 20 years due to automation & artificial intelligence?” On and off we discussed that question and I still get alerts when this answer has been shared. Then we decided to make Jobs gone by 2040 a project. It is probably a good idea to make this a running record and see how the prediction changes over time as we get closer to 2040.
Here are the most obvious jobs that will disappear in the next 20 years. Then 10 years later the list more than doubled – we are still working on it.
Obviously, this list is a “guestimation” based on current, not quite completed research we are currently conducting. Globally it’s about 100 Million+ jobs that will phase out and no longer get hired for. It assumes that it will take more than 20 years to make robots so advanced that they are good enough to replace most work we do today. That would grow the number to about a billion jobs. AI-driven Autonomous Machines will not need any humans to operate them. So the number of ‘new’ jobs is very slim. But see the possible options below.
‘*’ will probably not completely disappear but still, experience a dramatic reduction by more than 75%.
‘**” will profoundly change
JOBS GONE BY 2024
– Administrator *
– Air traffic controller *
– Aircraft cargo handler
– All repeatable task worker
– Ambulance driver [*] 2023
– Archivist *
– Architectural drafter
– ATM Service Specialist
– Automotive mechanic ** (2023)
– Auxiliary equipment operator *
– Bakers for mass production
– Bank accountant *
– Bank risk analyst
– Bank tellers
– Bindery workers and operator
– Bookbinder *
– Bookkeeper *
– Bus driver * (2023)
– Business analyst ** (2023)
– Call center service employee
– Cashier, in stores or supermarkets
– Claims examiner
– Computer technician
– Court reporter/dictation
– Credit analyst
– Credit checker
– Data entry worker
– Engineering designer *
– Financial controller assistant
– General office worker
– Human resource specialist *
– Industrial model maker *
– Industrial prototype builder **
– Inside sales
– Insurance case analyst
– Medical transcriptionist
– Motor vehicle inspectors *
– Order clerks
– Outbound marketing
– Outbound sales
– Postal service clerk
– Real Estate Broker *
– Receptionist **
– Sales clerk
– Service center service employee
– Shipping / Receiving Clerk *
– Support center service employee
– Surgical assistant *
– Switchboard operator
– Taxi driver [*] 2023
– Teacher **
– Technical drafter
– Title searcher
– Transportation planner
– Travel agent
– Truck driver [*] 2023
– Typesetting and printer operators
– Waiter **
– Wealth manager *
– Ambulance drivers
– Taxi driver
– Truck driver
JOBS WON BY 2040 (update 2023)
JOBS THAT WILL or DID GET CREATED DUE TO NEW TECHNOLOGY OR NEW NEEDS
+ Prompt Engineer
+ AI Application Developer
+ Data cleansing consultant
+ Industrial Neuro Scientist
+ Online Training Developer for AI Applications
+ AI Security Architect
+ Human Intelligence Augmentation Expert
+ Human Intelligence Augmentation Planner
+ Human Intelligence Augmentation Coach
+ Human Intelligence Augmentation Trainer
+ Human Talent Analyst
+ Human Talent Developer (school, university)
+ Live Long Learning Expert
+ Self payment observers in Supermarkets
+ Industrial purchase consultant
Jobs gone – jobs won
With new opportunities and new jobs – additional opportunities get created and this will create yet another wave of jobs.
At the World Innovations Forum, we are working on interesting concepts to solve the problem. It’s a three-prong approach
1) Taxing the output of AMs. That tax money then can be used to pay a lifelong base income for those who cannot switch jobs or just don’t find any other job.
2) Organizing an ‘Unconditional Base Income” for the respective group of people.
3) Providing coaching to start alternative activities such as environment protection services, artist jobs, care jobs, photography reporters, travel explorers, and many more.
When will we live a self determined life
In the following 30–55 years – 50 to 75 years from now, we may have a totally different perspective on the “JOB” and may call it a new trend to actively eradicating work so we can actually follow our heart and dreams. Already Confucius said “
Look for an activity you wholeheartedly love
and you will never work a day in your life.
Our today’s mind is conditioned to have a JOB – to make enough money to have a good life – and if you don’t you have a miserable life and can’t feed a family. It may be that future generations look more than ever into self fulfillment. It doesn’t mean they won’t do anything but they only do what they love. There is no job on the plant today that nobody want’s to do – and if so, we could easily build the machines to do it. We may come to a point where “JOBS” that make money will be replaced by “MISSION” that also makes money. For me I adjusted the old saying of Confucius a bit that helped me get out of the old circle.
Look for an activity you wholeheartedly love
and find people who love what you do.
I followed Confucius and truly loved my first job. We may just need to change our mindset a little bit :) And technology plays all of a sudden an important role in handling those jobs that most people don’t LOVE in the first place.
UPDATE (4 years later)
Q4 2023, the prediction needed an update, in particular through major advances in AI. With those advances we will need new and different qualities. Still the number of employees needed may decline
I decided to put the year of updates next to the job position and added an additional list of jobs that didn’t exist before
Let me know your insights and predictions so that others can see different opinions.
Also if you know of NEW jobs that are created due to AI and Robotics share tat as well
Contribute to Jobs gone by 2040
Join the World Innovations Forum and add your thoughts to the “Jobs gone by 2040” circle.